GOP frontrunners for 2016. Thoughts?

I’m currently working on a way of predicting the outcome of the GOP primaries, with the full knowledge that it is still way too early to early to handicap this race and it isn’t a highly important topic just yet.  But it’s Friday and it’s a light-hearted topic (for now).  So I took a look at British oddsmaker Ladbrooks‘ current odds on the race to get a sense of how things are currently looking for the potential candidates.  There were a couple of surprises in there for me.

I’ve listed the odds below as they stand today.  I’m very curious as to how people see this.  Are there any surprises in the list for you?  Do you have any thoughts on the candidates themselves? How do you see the race shaping up?

Candidate – Odds on winning the nomination

Marco Rubio –  5/1
Chris Christie – 5/1
Jeb Bush – 6/1
Paul Ryan – 8/1
Rand Paul – 8/1
Scott Walker – 14/1
Mike Huckabee – 14/1
Bobby Jindal – 16/1
Ted Cruz – 16/1
Susana Martinez – 20/1
Condoleeza Rice – 25/1
Rick Santorum – 25/1
Eric Cantor – 25/1
Bob McDonnell – 25/1
Rob Portman – 25/1
Sarah Palin – 33/1
Nikki Haley – 33/1
Jon Huntsman – 33/1
Rick Perry – 33/1
Mike Pence – 40/1
John Kasich – 40/1
Ron Paul – 50/1
Donald Trump – 50/1
Mitt Romney – 50/1
John Bolton – 50/1
John McCain – 50/1
David Petraeus – 66/1
Ben Carson – 100/1


  1. At least half of the people on this list would be non-starters for me. That will probably make the Dem haters crazy, but oh well.

    1. There's a lot of fluff in that list. But also a lot of noise. Most of those listed won't run (thankfully, in most cases).

      At this point I think the top 6 are handicapped reasonably well – at least in the notion that they are the top 6. However, the Top 3 are a bit surprising in that they are 1-2-3. There's enough overlap between Christie and Bush that they may effectively cancel each other out.

      There may be enough similarity between Paul and Walker to have a clearly lesser, but similar effect . Between that and the recent post on Hot Air about Rubio possibly angling to be everyone's number two choice, maybe it makes sense that Rubio is the oddsmaker's favorite right now.

      I know that conflicts with my response to Libertarian Advocate's comment below, but I'm not sure about it at all. If I were a better handicapper, I'd be working in Las Vegas.

  2. I've got 1 in the top 5 and 5 in the top 10.

    Miss Sarah, Nikki, Bolton, and Perry are about all afterwards.

    1. That's an interesting ratio. I'm speculating that your picks would be Paul, Walker, Jindal, Cruz and Martinez. Is that close? If not, maybe I should give up on handicapping.

      Having the bottom half of the top 10 might seem discouraging but Bush and Christie may end up dueling over the same group of voters. Rubio will also have a foot in that space as will Huckabee, if he runs. The net effect might be that they cancel out each other's ability to take a commanding lead and thereby moving the next tier of candidates up in the odds.

      Of course the group I speculated were your choices could suffer from the same problem. The good news is that it's still way too early to tell. The bad news is I don't see libertarians and fiscal conservatives coalescing around a single candidate by the primaries, which could effectively leave those sorts of candidates on the second tier.

  3. Rubio was either snookered by Satan's footman (Schmuck Schumer) into betraying his base or he's an active coven member. Either way I don't trust him anymore. Christie is an anti 2A RINO so not for me. Jeb is a Bush AND a RINO, but being a Bush is the more serious offense, so not for me. Paul Ryan, smart but enigmatic. Not sure I trust him. Rand Paul, I like him but he's very quirky and the MSM will shred him to pieces. Scott Walker, I'll have to read more. Huckabee. Doesn't do it for me. I like Cruz and Jindal alot.

    1. I read an interesting post on Hot Air yesterday that postulated that Rubio was gambling on financial support from the establishment as a result of his positioning on immigration. It may have been a tactical move. But if that's the case it was a tactical mistake.

  4. It's always easier to pick who won't be the next President. Of the list above almost none will have any chance whatsoever. It will have to be someone with a different vision who can attract rational Democrats and young people in some reasonable numbers. Rand Paul fits even though he will make establishment GOP types go bonkers. They will vote for him anyway if they have to to avoid the dreaded Dem candidate. Rubio, Jindal, or an unknown could have an outside chance, but it's unlikely. This is probably the GOP's last at bat. It's definitely so if they go establishment. One word of solace for the old school guys..I'm almost always wrong about politics because I'm not very interested in it. I'm interested in getting the ship turned toward smaller govt and liberty. I personally won't vote for anyone who doesn't convince me that they really mean to do that and not just talk about it. Republicans hate me even though people like me are their only chance. They would rather scream in my face than change their big govt ways.

  5. I like Scott Walker as the most battle hardened against the Leftist spin and lie machine. Dr. Ben Carson is the only one I see on the list who is of the type of barely noticed, but just beginning to rise, dark horse with star appeal that might catch fire and eclipse everybody else.

  6. Christie, Bush, and Huckabee belong down in the Trump, McCain and Ron Paul numbers, but they have excellent allies in (and free publicity from) the mainstream media.

    OTOH, doesn't "Get Christie Bush" sound like a cheesy movie from the 60's?

  7. 2016 is going to be a tough one for the GOP. If the candidate is either an establishment old guard type or a Tea Party type the party loses. To win the GOP will need independents. IOW's the party needs a clear, consistent, and positive message, something lacking in 2012. New idea combined with the truth is what will put a republican back in the Oval office on 2016.


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