Intrade Shows Mitt Romney's Shot at the Nomination Tanking

By the Left Coast Rebel

Have you visited Intrade.com, the online betting site where users can place real-money wagers on just about anything but especially politics?

If you haven't you should check it out. Surprisingly it is incredibly accurate forecasting election results. It was spot-on in 2010 and the 2008 election as well.

I popped in this morning and my jaw dropped when I saw Mitt Romney's crateoric crash. Here's a one month chart of the establishment GOP's favorite socialist, the "inevitable" presidential 'R' statist candidate:

Forty-five percent from the mid-seventies. That sure doesn't look like inevitable chart action to me.

Newt Gingrich has experienced a meteoric rise recently, this chart doesn't even take into account Cain's dropout yesterday:

Ron Paul's Intrade showing is pretty bleak, although he is numero dos in Iowa at the moment. IBD's Andrew Malcom thinks Paul might just win Iowa.

Where does that leave us? A deeply flawed candidate with truckloads of personal bagagge and some conservative views (and a whole lot that aren't) is now leading over a liberal one-term blue state governor with no conservative views (or at least any we can believe he actually believes). So, in other words, the field is volatile, wide-open... just like it has been.

What say you?

5 comments:

  1. I think that this adds credibility to my oft-ridiculed idea that it was the Gingrich team that went after Cain.

    The TEA Party isn't going to be excited about Mitt or Newt. Nominating either one of them will generate the predictable howls from the neocons that we have some sort of a responsibility to show up and vote even if the candidate is displaying RINO characteristics. And when we do, absolutely nothing will change.

    Eleanor Clift made a very interesting observation - one thing that Newt has that Mott doesn't is passion. Mitt comes off as smarmy, merely tolerating the primary process while already knowing the outcome will be favorable to him. Newt is showing passion, and that's playing well on TV as well as in the media.

    With a war-mongering Democrat in office running against a squishy conservative, it doesn't seem to hard to imagine a third party run actually gaining some traction if the right candidate emerged.

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  2. Great points, Angela. As I said in the post, between Mitt and Gingrich, Gingrich is the one with "some" conservative views and as you say here, he shows passion whereas "I'll say anything you want me to" Mitt does not. This nation is in a world of hurt with the presidential field; especially considering it is the worst time in our history to be rudderless, leadership-wise. I just can't believe that this is the best the GOP can do even though the people are demanding so much more...

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  3. As I see it, Newt's pro patriot act stance couple with congress even contemplating Senate Bill 1867 should cause us all to think about how important all our candidates are!

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  4. Mitt is a chameleon who will change form at will as perceived necessary to gain the vote.


    Newt, while possessing "some conservative views" as Tim states, a look at his record and his personality should give pause.

    Check this out... http://hotair.com/archives/2011/12/02/george-will-wisdom-isnt-exactly-newt-gingrichs-strong-suit/

    Indeed a weak field, with perhaps the exception of Ron Paul. His weakness being his inability to appeal to a broad field inclusive of rational conservatives, rational moderates and rational liberals. Which is in my humble view is what it is going to take to unseat Mr. Obama.

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  5. Angela,

    You said:
    "The TEA Party isn't going to be excited about Mitt or Newt. Nominating either one of them will generate the predictable howls from the neocons that we have some sort of a responsibility to show up and vote even if the candidate is displaying RINO characteristics. And when we do, absolutely nothing will change."

    I'm in love with these words. Hey, have you met Nick Rowe? He might not be too keen on what you just said here.

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