Lies, Damned Lies And Polls

By Chris W
The Libertarian Patriot

As a baseball fan, I'm a stat geek. Even before "Moneyball" became vogue I would often get in great discussions with other fans about players and always attempted to use statistics to back my point as did others to back theirs. What you see with your eyes is often deceiving and can skew your perspective, but the numbers don't lie.

Well the same goes with politics and polls. You can watch the debates and read the press but there is always a slanted perspective.

Case in point; this write-up by CNN on the polls of the first 4 states to have a say in the GOP nomination. If you believe what the pundits say or take a quick look at the numbers, either Mitt Romney or Herman Cain is the presumptive nominee. But if you look a little deeper that is far from a given; Undecided/NOTA is giving both lead horses a run for their money.

Take Florida for example. In the Sunshine state Romney has a double digit lead over Cain, 30-18%, which is pretty impressive but Undecided/Nota sits at number 2 with 24%.

More impressive is in the former Massachusetts Governor's back yard of New Hampshire where he has a huge lead, 40-13%, over the Pizza man. But that pesky Undecided/NOTA is again in second with 19%.

It's only until you get to Iowa, Romney 24%/Cain 21%, where Undecided/NOTA is in third at 14% and South Carolina, Romney 25%/Cain 23%, and Undecided/NOTA is third again at 15%.

What's even more amazing is that in all 4 states only roughly 30% of those polled stand firmly behind their chosen candidate.

[I'd also like to point out that in my home state of Arizona, which has scheduled it's primary for February 28, Undecided/NOTA is in a statistical dead heat with Romney and Cain. Undecided/NOTA 25%, Romney 25%, Cain 24%.]

My point is, this thing ain't far from a done deal yet and it's anyone's game. Even a complete dark horse like former NM Governor Gary Johnson is one or two good media cycles away from the nomination.

Stranger things have happened.

Via Memeorandum


  1. It's still very early for most voters, even in Iowa. But undecided voters will flock to the front runner(s) in the last few days. Until then, pundits, junkies and deep-pocketed insiders will fight to determine who will be in the top 3.

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