by: Les Carpenter
Rational Nation USA
Birthplace of Independent Conservatism
Liberty -vs- Tyranny
I just caught the following on Memorandum and thought it an accurate assessment of Obama's reelection chances at this early point in the game.
The Weekly Standard - A year from now, the presidential election campaign will be in full swing. Obama and the Republican nominee will be touring the country at a feverish pace, trying hard to convince swing voters to go their way. Obviously, we’re still too far out from November 2012 to know what will happen, but we’re close enough to get a sense of the shape of the race.
President Obama’s chances next year don’t look good. As of this writing, the InTrade prediction market gives the president about a 50-50 chance, and even Democratic insiders are starting to doubt the top of their ticket. According to National Journal, they’re privately giving the president just a 63 percent chance of victory, which is not a great score considering the partisan source. These relatively gloomy odds are not surprising, as the president faces some historic challenges in his reelection quest.
Obama’s biggest problem is the economy, particularly as the typical voter experiences it. Though the recession technically ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the average American has not felt the slightest hint of a two-year “recovery.”
Indeed things appear to be looking gloomier and gloomier for the POTUS and his reelection. Obama, given his rather bleak record, especially with respect to the economy, would be better served by doing little and allowing market forces to control the direction of the economy.
Obviously Obama is not going to stand by idly and remain disengaged, to do so would be political suicide. The American people do expect their leader to lead, and they are hopeful their leader has the wisdom to lead wisely.
The President's job speech Thursday, with specifics to follow, was an attempt to lead. However, given the likelihood Congress will not give him all he wants, rightly so given what we know of his plan, one must question the motive driving Obama's strategy.
The following comment left on a previous Rational Nation USA post by blogger Always On Watch is an excellent analysis that answers the question.
IMO, Obama isn't going to back down on this pass-it-all-or-else mode. He's playing a game: The economy is in the dumper for the long term no matter what we do. I know you won't pass the entire set of measures I propose, and because you won't pass it all, I'll use that against you in my campaign.
Even some mainstream media sources are saying that the above is his strategy. Not that I believe much in the msm, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
And so it is. We are stuck with a cynical and devious POTUS until January 2013. At which time we hope the American political process produces a candidate with vision, intelligence, integrity, and a proven track record of success.
Cross posted at Rational Nation USA