NY-25 Update for Nov. 13: Ann Marie Buerkle picks up 24 votes in Cayuga County and 18 in Monroe County in bid to unseat Dan Maffei

By Sam Foster

Yesterday's absentee count in Cayuga County turned up 24 votes for Ann Marie Buerkle. So far only Cayuga County has completed their vote count although an additional 35 votes were challenged and will go before a judge to determine whether they will be counted.

Monroe County also began their vote count yesterday. WHEC Rochester reports:

The Monroe County Board of Election began the process Friday morning. Representatives from the two campaigns were sitting at seven tables, along with bi-partisan observers from the two parties. They can either accept or reject the un-opened ballots for various reasons. The ballots that are cast will be counted. The uncast ballots will be held for a likely court hearing.

“I know each county is counting at different times. Today is Monroe County. Once we get through this process, we will open and count the ballots. Any that are not counted or that are objected to will go before a judge if it gets to that point,” said Peter Quinn, (R) Monroe County Election Commissioner.

The official ballot count, according to Quinn, was 630 in favor of Buerkle, 612 in favor of Maffei. However, 236 of those Monroe County ballots are still up for judicial review.


WHEC also reported that military ballots have until November 24th to be returned and counted, so expect much more drama to unfold before all is resolved.

Update x1:

Broc from Incognito, has a prediction in favor of Dan Maffei:

I think this one is going to Maffei. Continuing on her underperformance in mail ballots in Cayunga, Maffei’s campaign noted that Buerkle carried the 25th District’s three towns in the Rochester suburbs (Irondequoit, Penfield and Webster) by 10 points on Election Day, 55 percent to 45 percent. When the absentee ballots were counted Friday from Monroe County, Buerkle’s margin of victory was less than 2 percentage points.


Here is the problem with it. This would be germane had Dan Maffei retained the lead. He didn't, so any additional votes are just gravy for Buerkle's likely victory.

What this race comes down to is a simple matter of numbers. At a lead of 729, Dan Maffei needs to out perform Ann Marie Buerkle by about 12 points in Onondaga County to break even. He did by 8 points on election night. There is still one more county that swung for Buerkle to be counted and it encompasses more votes than both Monroe and Cayuga tallied together. Even a mere fifty votes more raises the margin Dan must win in Onondaga by about another 2 points. It's a tall task for a race that was very close.

Second, they are only counting absentees that have been returned. Military ballots have another two weeks to get back and those votes are likely to go to Ann Marie Buerkle.

So, it's still too close to call, but I'd put the odds largely in favor of Ann Marie Buerkle toppling Dan Maffei.

3 comments:

  1. I'm just saying, in Monroe, she beat him at the polls by 21.68% (19987/16426), but just 2.9% by mail. The Monroe results are somewhat skewed because the Maffei camp is challenging 170 GOP ballots vs 30 Dem challenged... I just reread the article and found out about that. I hope you are right, just throwing some caution out there.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Broc,

    I see your point, which is why I added it to the post. There are also more ballots returned in Onondaga from Republicans/conservatives than Democrats.

    There is much much more, but I think there is more reason to be optimistic than pessimistic. However, I wanted to put your alternative point of view because there is some merit.

    ReplyDelete

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