by Sam Foster
Robert Harding of Eye on Albany released some of Dan Maffei's campaign's vote count from Onondaga County and it's an imposing figure:
Maffei's campaign releases more #'s (38% of ballots from Onondaga): Maffei 1,363 Buerkle 1,038
The numbers sound intimidating, but instead they point to a very close race. By these numbers, Maffei is taking abou 13.5% of the Onondaga County vote. With over 2,400 votes counted, it's likely that this is a reliable picture of what we can expect from the recount.
So what do the numbers tell us.
With Buerkle at an 824 vote lead and Maffei taking 13.5% of the 6,300 absentee's, the result would be Dan Maffei by 28 votes (852-824). The problem for Maffei?
Wayne County still needs to finish counting their absentees. Buerkle won Wayne County by a 25 point margin and they'll be counting over 1,200 ballots. If Buerkle maintains the same spread as she did on election night, she'll add roughly 300 votes to her total. She'd need only a little more than a 2 point margin to break even with Dan Maffei.
Of course, this is all hypothetical. I'd give Ann Marie Buerkle the benefit of the doubt in retaining the lead when all is said and done. However, if she fails to win decisively, we could be at this for a very long time.
Numbers via Robert Harding.