University of Buffalo Professor James Campbell predicts 51 seat gain for Republicans

By Conservative Generation for Left Coast Rebel

Well voters already know how their voting in November, it's just that we'd like to know right this very moment what those votes will be. The pollster's are predicting a Republican landslide. What about the acedemics?

University at Buffalo professor James Campbell just created a new election model for 2010. Can you guess how many seats he's predicting the Dems lose?

Political prognosticator James E. Campbell, professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo, predicts that the Democrats can expect to lose 51 seats in the House of Representatives in the November election, producing a Republican majority.
Campbell's forecast, to be presented this week at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Washington, D.C., is based on what he calls the "seats-in-trouble model." This forecasting equation factors in the president's approval rating and the degree to which one political party is in danger of losing seats in the election, as estimated by the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

51 to 52 seats is a tall order, but then so is a 10 point lead on the generic ballot.

His recent paper is worth a read. One interesting component to Professor Campbell's research found that in midterm elections, Presidents need a huge approval rating to retain seats; somewhere in the ball park of 65%.

Let's hope the professor's model is dead on the money with his predictions.